SLOW FUTURE RESEARCH · ACTIVE LEDGER V1
Active Research Ledger
Unresolved theses, with the claim, evidence state, next observation, and falsifier visible. This is the public surface; private receipts and unsupplied brokerage records are not included.
← Back to Case Study 001: Opendoor
OPEN — Opendoor turnaround
| Field | Current state |
|---|---|
| Thesis ID | OPEN-turnaround-2026-v1 |
| Original market prediction | FAILED — OPEN above $10 by Halloween 2025 |
| Operating mechanism | PARTIALLY CONFIRMED — acquisition volume and contribution-margin checkpoints moved in the expected direction |
| Profitability | OPEN — adjusted EBITDA was still -$4M in Q2 2026 |
| Market recognition | OPEN — the $10 boundary was not achieved at the observation date |
| Framework timestamp | 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z |
| Framework boundary | The eight numeric thresholds were formalized after Q2 2026 results were public; they are not represented as 2025 preregistration. |
| Position record | No verified brokerage ledger supplied; the public record contains a paper-trade declaration only. |
Next falsifiers
- Two consecutive checkpoints show volume below 4,000 homes while the company is attempting to scale.
- Aged inventory rises above 15% or contribution margin falls below 4% at elevated volume.
- Fixed operating expense rises above $35M without corresponding unit-economic improvement.
- By December 31, 2026, operating improvements have not propagated into positive adjusted EBITDA or the declared forward adjusted-net-income milestone.